Simulation of risks is of course possible in ARIS, but the simulation of Chances seems to be a bit difficult. There is no real simulation of chances, but only the possibility to work with "negative" numbers.
The attribute Amount of damages that provides different distributions of the damage cannot use negative numbers. So only the attribute "Average amount of damage" can be used that of course does not provide distributions.
It would be good if there was better support for simulation of chances, by at least providing the possibility of negative numbers.